After a thrilling quarterfinals, the 2022 World Cup has been whittled to just four teams. The first semi-final, Argentina vs. Croatia, kicks off at 2 p.m. EST on Tuesday, Dec. 13. The second, France vs. Morocco, takes place 24 hours later (2 p.m. EST, Wednesday, Dec. 14).
The winners will meet in the final on Sunday, Dec. 18 (10 a.m. EST). The losers will compete for third place on Saturday, Dec. 17 (10 a.m. EST).
France Favored in World Cup Odds Entering Semi-Finals
The odds to win the tournament heavily favor France (+105) and Argentina (+150) at this stage, followed by Croatia (+750) and longshot Morocco (+1000).
France and Argentina were among the top-five favorites in the World Cup odds from the outset, entering the tournament at +600 and +615, respectively. Croatia was a second-tier contender at roughly +4500, while Morocco was a +23000 longshot before the tournament started.
For those not versed in moneyline odds, a successful $10 wager at +23000 odds would net a $2,300 profit.
Argentina vs Croatia Odds and Prediction
The three-way moneyline odds for Argentina vs Croatia establish the Argentines as -120 favorites to win in 90 minutes with the draw at +220 and a Croatia victory at +400. Argentina is a -270 favorite to advance to the final while the Croatians are +210 underdogs.
Argentina’s Tournament Form
Argentina’s run through the tournament has consisted of dizzying highs coupled with brief but devastating lows. They opened the tournament with a shocking 2-1 loss to Saudi Arabia, conceding twice in the second half after dominating the first 45 minutes. But Lionel Messi and company responded with hard-fought wins over Mexico (2-0) and Poland (2-0) to top Group C. In the round of 16, they eased past Australia (2-1) in a game that was never seriously in jeopardy.
They carried that form through the first 80 minutes of their quarterfinal clash with the Netherlands, opening up a 2-0 lead without conceding a shot on target. But a late-game letdown saw the Dutch level the match before Argentina prevailed on penalties.
Messi, now 35 years of age, has scored four of his teams nine goals in the tournament while assisting on two others. Argentina hasn’t been a one-man show, however. Young Julian Alvarez, in particular, has been a key contributor. Not only does the 22-year-old Man City striker have a pair of goals, he also leads the team in Non-Penalty Expected Goals according to FBRef.com.
Croatia’s Tournament Form
Still a longshot, the Croatians will view their semi-final odds against Argentina as positively optimistic; heading into their quarterfinal matchup with tournament-favorite Brazil, Croatia was +800 to win with the draw at +425. But the 2018 runners-up held the Brazilians to a scoreless draw through 90 minutes and then showed championship mettle by coming from behind in extra time before winning their own penalty shootout (4-2).
The win over Brazil was Croatia’s second straight on penalties, escaping Japan 1-1 (3-1) in the round of 16. Goalkeeper Dominik Livaković would likely win the Golden Ball if the tournament ended today. Not only did he save five of the eight penalties he faced in the knockout stage and hold Brazil scoreless for 90 minutes, he also posted two clean sheets in the group stage (nil-nil draws with Morocco and Belgium).
Croatia’s attack hasn’t been nearly as potent as it was during their 2018 run to the World Cup final. They have only generated 5.8 Expected Goals through five matches, while their opponents have generated 7.5. They scored twice as many goals against a defensively-suspect Canada (4) than in their other four games combined (2).
While Messi isn’t really showing his age, the same can’t be said of Croatia captain Luka Modrić, Golden Ball-winner in 2018. The 37-year-old midfielder doesn’t have a goal or assist to his name so far and has generated just 0.3 Expected Goals and 0.6 Expected Assists through five matches.
Argentina vs Croatia Prediction
If there is one thing Croatia manager Zlatko Dalić seems to know, it’s his team’s limitations. This is not the same dynamic squad that finished second in Russia four years ago. But they are a disciplined, veteran, cohesive unit that will come in with an excellent gameplan for containing Messi and Alvarez.
Expect a methodical (read: boring) first 30 minutes and ultimately a scoreless first half while the Croatian legs are still fresh.
Best bet: first-half under 0.5 (+148 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
France vs Morocco Odds
The odds for the second semi-final are considerably more lopsided than the first. France enters Wednesday’s game as -190 favorites to win in 90 minutes and -480 chalk to advance. Morocco is +650 to win in regulation and +330 to advance. A 90-minute draw is priced at +280.
France’s Tournament Form
It’s hard to find much fault with France’s performance to date. While they did drop a game to Tunisia in the group stage, they had already locked up first place and were resting key starters.
The full-strength French side ran circles around Australia (4-1) and thoroughly outplayed Denmark (2-1) before dusting aside Poland (3-1) in the round of 16. They were pushed to the brink by England in the quarters - needing Harry Kane to miss a late penalty to emerge with a 2-1 victory - but were the more-dangerous team in the minutes when the game was level.
Kylian Mbappé currently leads the World Cup in goals with five (plus two assists), while teammate Olivier Giroud is right behind him with four.
At times, France has looked vulnerable at the back without Presnel Kimpembe (hamstring injury), and the midfield is depleted sans Paul Pogba and N’Golo Kante. But the massive amount of depth in the French ranks has shone through.
Morocco’s Tournament Form
Morocco’s Cinderella performance in the World Cup has caught many off-guard, but the seeds were there if you looked closely. The team was ranked 22nd in the world in the FIFA rankings entering the World Cup and had kept four straight clean sheets in its tune-up games.
The roster is filled with names that play at the pinnacle of European club competition, led by Chelsea’s Hakim Ziyech, PSG’s Achraf Hakimi, Fiorentina’s Sofyan Amrabat, Sevilla’s Youssef En-Nesyri, and Bayern Munich’s Noussair Mazraoui.
Goalkeeper Yassine Bounou, also of Sevilla, has been nearly flawless. The only goal he has conceded to date came off the boot of his own defender in a 2-1 group-stage win over Canada.
In the round of 16, Morocco brought a hyper-defensive strategy to its clash with Spain, taking the game to penalties tied at 0-0. They gave up just one shot on target in the match despite conceding 77% of possession. During the spot kicks, Bounou saved all three penalties he faced, earning his team a place in the quarters.
Morocco’s quarterfinal performance against Portugal was even more impressive. Playing firmly on the counterattack, they took an opportunistic 1-0 lead just before halftime and held on in the second stanza. Across the two games against their heavily-favored Iberian opponents, Morocco surrendered just 1.9 Expected Goals, while generating 2.1.
In short, the advance analytics say they deserve to be here.
France vs Morocco Prediction
Morocco’s trip to the semi-finals is anything but a fluke. This team has talent in all thirds of the field and is extremely well-coached. Reminiscent of Greece’s 2004 Euro championship, Morocco is happy to cede possession in favor of maintaining defensive structure.
It worked against Portugal, Spain, Belgium, and Croatia, and I fully expect the stout Moroccan defense to hold up for at least the first half against France, despite the firepower Les Bleus have on display.
Best bet: First-half double-chance - Morocco or Draw (-148 at Barstool Sportsbook)
Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through the links in this article. See the sportsbook operator’s terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage. If you or a loved one has a gambling problem call the National Council on Problem Gambling 24/7 at 1-800-GAMBLER. Must be 21 or older to gamble.
